We tend to think that it is difficult to predict the future because it is. Who forecast 9/11 or Covid? Where are the flying cars, paperless offices and 2 day working weeks that we were promised? However, in the light of failed predictions and non-predictions it is easy to overlook the fact that many people did accurately forecast developments in science, technology and society. Here are some notable examples.
Television – Mark Twain published an article in 1898 in which he described a ‘telectroscope’ which would allow people to see global news from around the world.
Jules Verne predicted the Moon Landing in his book, From the Earth to the Moon, written in 1865. His astronauts were fired by a gigantic cannon based in Florida. Verne also predicted scuba diving apparatus in Twenty Thousand Leagues under the Sea in 1870.
Mobile phones: The TV series Star Trek showed a flip phone, the ‘communicator’, in 1966. Motorola launched the first commercial mobile flip phone some thirty years later. Star Trek crew members also used a hand-held device to record data from the planets they visited. Just like a smartphone.
Smart watches: The comic strip ‘Dick Tracy’ was created by Chester Gould. In 1946 Dick used a two-way wrist radio. In a 1964 episode, Gould included video function in the device.
Tablet Device. Arthur C Clarke’s book, 2001 : A Space Odyssey, published in 1968 envisioned ‘newspads’ which astronauts used to find out what was going on.
Domestic robots: Czech author Karel Čapek coined the term “robot” in 1920 in a science fiction play, R.U.R . The word comes from the Czech word ‘robotnik, meaning ‘forced worker.’
The E-Book was predicted by Slanslaw Lem in his book, Return from the Stars, in 1961. This Polish author described books in crystal form on devices that sound like kindles.
H G Wells predicted the Atomic Bomb in ‘The World Set Free’ published in 1914. He wrote about a nuclear bomb which would explode for 17 days and carry nuclear fallout. He also forecast the tank as an armoured battlefield vehicle in his book, ‘The Land Ironclads’, 1903.
Video Calls were described by Albert Robida in 1890 in his book, ‘Le Vingtieme Siecle; La Vie Electrique’. He called the device that enabled these calls ‘le telephonoscope.’
Mass Surveillance was predicted by George Orwell in the book Nineteen Eighty-Four, published in 1949. He describes a world with where words and actions are monitored by the State.
The Star Wars IV movie released in 1977 features a scene where the robot R2D2 projects a 3D Hologram image of Princess Leia asking Obi-Wan Kenobi for help. Holograms are now used for shows of rock stars such as ABBA.
Drones: Frank Herbert’s 1965 novel ‘Dune’ describes a small drone used as a hunter seeker assassin.
Virtual reality: Stanley Weinbaum’s 1935 story “Pygmalion’s Spectacles’ foretold Virtual Reality goggles.
Earphones – Ray Bradbury’s novel Fahrenheit 451 described earphones which played music and talk for everyone.
If you want to know what the future will hold then science-fiction novels are a good place for ideas. Some will come true!
What about Douglas Adams Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy published in 1979 predicting the internet…” the standard repository of all knowledge”.
Arthur C Clarke also predicted the internet in his book “Imperial Earth”
Arthur C Clarke: geostationary satellite (1945) – the idea goes back at least to Herman Potocnik in 1929;
Philip K Dick (1956 book & 2002 film) “Minority Report”: pervasive surveillance and targeted advertising;
Robert A Heinlein “Stranger in a Strange Land” (1961): abusive and over-powerful church (cf. tele-evangelists); also access to the US President being via his wife’s astrologer (cf. Nancy Reagan).