In Mexico archaeologists have found toy models made by the ancient Olmec peoples some two thousand years ago. What is remarkable about these models of animals is that they have little wheels on them so that children could push them along the ground. It appears that the Olmec people – one of the oldest known civilizations of the Americas – had invented the wheel. Yet the wheel was not known to any of the later native peoples of the Americas. The innovation was found and then forgotten. The conditions for the development and use of the wheel were not right. After all, what use is a wheeled cart in the jungle or indeed in a rocky landscape with no roads?
Innovations are only useful if their environment can support them and if their time is right.
Bill Gross has studied what makes some start-ups succeed and so many fail. He analysed the histories of 200 startup companies and compared five factors, the idea, the team, the business model, the funding and the timing. You can see him relate his findings in his Ted talk, The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed.
His findings were striking. The most important factor was timing, then the team and then the idea. Many startup companies with great teams and innovative business ideas fail because in each case the timing of their launch is unfortunate. And this can be down to luck.
The drawings of Leonardo da Vinci show models for a parachute, an armoured tank, a diving suit, a machine gun and a ball bearing. All these ideas were way ahead of the technology needed to put them into practical use.
The first electric vehicle was developed by the Scottish chemist Robert Davidson in the 1830s. It was powered by battery cells but they were not rechargeable. The advent of rechargeable lead-acid batteries in the 1860s spurred the development of electric cars and by 1900 they were the most popular form of automobile but they were heavy and slow and there were few paved roads. After 1910 the electric car was overtaken by the internal combustion engine which benefited from the availability of cheap gasoline giving the cars greater range and speed.
AT&T developed a video phone called the picture phone in 1964. It was big, heavy and clumsy and never caught on.
Apple launched the Newton “personal digital assistant” in 1993. It was an idea ahead of its time and failed to gain market traction.
Microsoft launched its tablet computer well ahead of any such Apple products in 2003. It ran with a pen-based Windows operating system and was big and expensive. It was a flop.
A great idea needs the technology, infrastructure and market conditions to be accepted. These factors may come along years later. When it comes to innovation timing is everything.
Paul Sloane is the author of Lateral Thinking for Every Day published by Kogan Page
